Is cash better than bonds today?

Short answer from today’s data: cash yields 3.78% (3-month bills) versus 4.21% on a 2-year Treasury. The 2-year pays 0.43 points more for locking your rate.

Cash floats: with the market leaning toward higher rates, floating cash would capture higher yields. The 2-year locks today’s rate for two years regardless.

Both currently clear the market’s 2.64% inflation expectation, so this is a choice between two positive real returns — direction, not level, decides it.