Know what today’s interest rates mean before you move your money.
Today's money score
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Scores are computed daily by a fixed formula from market data — never edited by hand. Savers: the real return on cash (3-month T-bill yield minus market-implied inflation), plus the direction of the expected rate path. Borrowers: the prime rate level and path direction. Homebuyers: the 30-year mortgage rate and path direction. 10 means historically favorable conditions; 1 means historically poor. Same formula every day — only the data changes.
The Fed, in plain English
The Fed held its target range at 3.50%–3.75% in June, but turned hawkish: about half of officials now expect at least one rate hike this year, and markets are pricing an increase as soon as the fall, as Middle East conflict pushes inflation forecasts higher.
At today’s 3.77%, $10,000 in 3-month T-bills earns about $377 a year.
Going into the July meeting, fed funds futures lean toward another hold, with rising odds of a hike later this year.
Plain-English summary
The Fed held its target range at 3.50%–3.75% in June but turned hawkish: about half of officials now expect a hike this year, and markets are pricing one as soon as fall. Good for savers, no relief for borrowers. Next decision: July 28–29.
The simulator
The Fed's target range is 3.50%–3.75% today. Pick a path for the next year of meetings — or build your own — and see what it would mean in dollars, for what you earn and what you owe.
* 2027 meeting dates are tentative until the Fed publishes its calendar. Range band is illustrative of market-implied uncertainty.
What you'd earn
Rates that float follow the Fed. Rates you lock today don't. Change the amount or the path above — everything recalculates.
| Where it sits | Avg yield, next 12 mo | vs. rates frozen today |
|---|
The daily reality check
Rates are only half the story — inflation decides what your dollars are worth. Pick an inflation path and see what it does to your savings, your spending, and your paycheck. The market's own guess updates every trading day.
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Savings use the average 3-month T-bill yield under the Fed path you selected above — the two simulators are connected. “Market says today” is the 10-year breakeven inflation rate from Treasury markets, refreshed daily. Real values are stated in today's dollars. Illustrative, not advice.
What you'd owe
Variable rates move with the Fed, usually within a billing cycle or two. Fixed rates don't move at all — that's the point of fixing them.
| What you owe on | Rate in 12 mo | vs. today |
|---|
Credit cards and HELOCs are modeled as prime + a fixed margin, so they move one-for-one with the Fed. New 30-year mortgage quotes follow the 10-year Treasury, which only partly tracks the Fed — modeled here at roughly 40¢ on the dollar; the payment shown is 30-year principal & interest on your entered balance, so you can compare it to buying at today’s rate. Your existing fixed mortgage never moves — its row shows the interest portion of your current payment (balance × rate ÷ 12), not the full payment with principal and escrow.
Today's number
What current rates pay across the safe places to park cash. Change the amount; it all recalculates.
| Where it sits | Yield | Per year |
|---|---|---|
| High-yield savingsinstant access, FDIC-insured | 3.80% | $3,800 |
| 3-month T-bill~90-day lock, state-tax-free | 3.77% | $3,770 |
| 1-year CDlocked for 12 months | 4.10% | $4,100 |
| 2-year Treasurylocks today’s yield for 2 years | 4.20% | $4,200 |
The flagship
Roll 3-month Treasury bills from a starting year through 2025, reinvesting as you go. Historical-actual — no forecast, just what the Fed's rate path actually paid.
The near-zero years — 1 of them — added only about $40. The bulk of your return arrived once the Fed pushed rates up, with the 3-month bill peaking at 5.07% in 2023.
| Year | 3-mo T-bill yield | Earned that year | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 0.04% | +$40 | $100,040 |
| 2022 | 2.02% | +$2,021 | $102,061 |
| 2023 | 5.07% | +$5,174 | $107,235 |
| 2024 | 4.97% | +$5,330 | $112,565 |
| 2025 | 4.07% | +$4,581 | $117,146 |
How we got here
From the COVID-era floor to the fastest hikes in decades and back down — the decisions that set today's rates.
Common questions
After each Fed decision, we send a single plain-English brief on what it means for your money. No weekly newsletter, no noise.
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